29 September 2025

Edinburgh Institute of Diplomacy and Economics Briefing

— Gold will hit $4,500 within the year due to worsening geopolitical risks and attacks on the Fed's independence. South African equities, silver and platinum also present attractive investment opportunities.

Diversify into precious metals.

 

The world is grappling with three issues, dividing attention.

The Russia-Ukraine war violating sovereignty, Middle East conflicts infringing on human rights, and Trump's tariff policies disregarding the LIO (Liberal International Order).

Focus cannot be concentrated on any single issue, leaving none resolved.

 

Israel's recent military support for Ukraine may well be aimed at ensuring continuation of these three global crises.

Facing not only domestic trials but also an ICC arrest warrant, Netanyahu will prolong the conflict to preserve his political life.

Moreover, it presents a prime opportunity to eliminate Iran's proxy forces.

Such an opportunity may never arise again.

He likely wishes the other two wars to persist until his own victory.

 

For the State of Israel, with a population of 9 million including 400,000 ethnic Russians and 400,000 ethnic Ukrainians, taking a clear side is difficult.

However, Iran is backed by Russia, and by supporting Ukraine, Israel likely aims to enhance its ability to prolong the war and bring about Russia's defeat.

 

Turning to the surrounding region, Western nations sharing democratic values are successively recognising Palestine as a state.

International pressure has finally intensified.

Time is running out.

Overshadowed by the Ukraine crisis, Netanyahu will likely seek to rapidly advance slaughter that violates the principle of proportionality.

 

Geopolitical risks are rising due to strengthened Western sanctions against Russia and Ukraine's offensive, likely causing crude oil prices to temporarily rebound and hover near $70.

 

Meanwhile, the price of gold, a safe-haven asset, will continue its upward trajectory.

Over the year since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel sparked the Middle East conflict, gold prices rose by approximately $700.

Following the inauguration of the Trump administration, policy uncertainty stemming from tariff policies added to this, causing a further rise of about $600 over four months.

From July 2024, attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence intensified, leading to a sharp surge of roughly $500 over three months amid this triple whammy.

Now, heightened security risks resurface as Ukraine intensifies its offensive following strengthened economic sanctions against Russia.

This quadruple whammy will likely push gold past $4,300 and towards $4,500 within the year.

Silver and platinum are also expected to rise alongside gold, driven by silver's undervaluation relative to gold in the silver-gold ratio.

South African stocks, many of which are gold mining companies and have hit record highs, also represent promising investment opportunities.

 

Live Gold And Silver Price 17:03 PM UTC 09.28.2025

 

           Ref.　 https://www.goldsilverjapan.com/gold-sil

 

＜South Africa's stock market>

 

Ref　日経新聞　

 

Trump's rhetoric about political interference in the Fed's independence may target worsening employment conditions rather than oil prices.

While the Fed's analysis suggests rising oil prices will only bring minor inflationary pressure in the medium to long term, it is unlikely Trump would employ theoretical analysis rhetoric.

Theory does not resonate with his core supporters.