AboutOverview of EIDE
By eliminating unnecessary factors and taking a broad view of the global situation, we forecast the Federal Reserve Board’s (FRB) interest rate policy.
Without an accurate compass, safe navigation is impossible.
Business Activities
Through its elite executive programme, EIDE provides institutional investors, central bank economists and policymakers with rigorous and forward-looking insights designed to eliminate tail risks and generate market-driven alpha (excess returns).
Our greatest strength lies in our exceptional structural approach. Drawing on international security research, we quantify the ‘severity’ and ‘duration’ of global turmoil and translate these sources of friction into inflationary pressures. Building on this foundation, we accurately forecast the Federal Reserve Board’s (FRB) next interest rate decision. This forms the bedrock of our analysis.
We reject the flawed industry standard of applying a single, static model to a diverse range of global crises. Instead, we employ a methodology that dynamically identifies and extracts unique independent variables optimised for each individual event.
For example, our ‘Structural Framework for Economic Sanctions’ was constructed using 12 carefully selected key independent variables, derived from a thorough analysis of 500 past sanction cases. Meanwhile, for the ‘Global Oil Market’, we operate a model driven by just six sophisticated independent variables. This high-precision matrix, which eliminates all unnecessary elements, proved its true worth during the 2025 Iran crisis. Whilst the mainstream media and market consensus were gripped by panic over fears that prices would exceed $130, our model succeeded in accurately predicting that the WTI crude oil price would fall within the precise range of $80 to $100.
Whilst advanced generative AI tools can accelerate conventional data processing, it is fundamentally impossible for them to replace the extraction of such high-dimensional variables or ‘multi-layered causal modelling’ spanning from international security to monetary policy. In this field, EIDE maintains an unrivalled position as a pioneer, transforming highly complex global intelligence into practical financial forecasts.
*Note: EIDE operates as a research and educational institution independent of the University of Edinburgh.
Our Commitment
At our Academy, we place small-group briefing sessions for selected participants at the heart of our programme. We strive to build a high-quality learning community whilst fostering an environment that supports free and critical academic inquiry.
We are convinced that there is immeasurable strategic value in experts active across the globe learning from one another through their respective sophisticated insights and questions. By continuously providing accurate, real-time analysis of rapidly changing trends in international politics and economics, we offer our members unwavering organisational confidence and a high level of trust in our Academy’s analysis.
Furthermore, EIDE deeply respects human rights standards, democratic values and institutional integrity. We consistently maintain an agile and flexible approach, providing equal and open opportunities to all outstanding individuals dedicated to global stability and the improvement of public governance.
This curriculum has been meticulously designed to enable those responsible for national monetary policy and professionals managing global macro portfolios to maximise their return on investment (ROI).
For those with a keen intellectual curiosity and advanced critical thinking skills, this interactive and practical programme will provide an unrivalled learning experience, offering both significant challenges and a genuine sense of achievement.
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Lead Diplomatic Economist
（English School Economist）
若生益宏（Masuhiro Wako）
Overview
Mr Wakō is a pioneer in the field of diplomatic economics and is highly regarded worldwide for his contribution to bridging the significant gap between international security and global macroeconomics. As the first Japanese expert to be recruited and appointed as a market economist immediately after graduating from university, he has spent many years analysing global macroeconomic trends and the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) using rigorous, data-driven analytical models.
Academic Foundation & Elite Recognition
Harvard Kennedy School (HKS): In 2019, Mr Wako’s outstanding analytical skills in international diplomacy and macroeconomics were recognised as being of the highest global standard, and he received a direct invitation from the prestigious HKS to participate in its Executive Education Programme.
University of Edinburgh (UK): At this university—the historic birthplace of economics, where Adam Smith once taught—he studied international political economy and obtained a Master’s degree in European and International Politics.
Hitotsubashi University (Japan): Under the guidance of a distinguished faculty—including Professor Masatsugu Naya, Professor Keiko Seki (Intercultural Education), Professor Ryo Oshiba and Professor Jota Ishikawa (International Trade)—he specialised in International Relations (with a focus on International Security Studies) and obtained a Bachelor of Laws (LL.B.) degree.
Professional Track Record & Institutional Impact
Proprietary Methodology & Quantitative Forecasting
Mr Wakō is one of a global elite—numbering fewer than five people worldwide—who has rejected the consensus of speculative markets and constructed a highly practical structural analysis model concerning economic sanctions using 12 independent variables.
The unique ‘Market Engine’ he developed consists of just six variables and is designed to filter out ‘noise’ caused by geopolitical risks, extracting only the ‘market signals’ that directly drive actual trading. The mathematical precision of this model was demonstrated during the Iran crisis of 2025. Whilst the mainstream media and market consensus were gripped by panic, predicting that ‘WTI crude oil futures would surge to over $130’, Mr Wako’s model perfectly predicted Iran’s diplomatic strategy of ‘verbal intervention’. As a result, it succeeded in keeping the target price for WTI within the precise range of $80 to $100, delivering exceptional returns (alpha) to investors worldwide that were unavailable anywhere else.