Dovish Fed chair in charge of housing inflation

31th December 2025

Edinburgh Institute of Diplomacy and Economics Briefings

ーDovish Fed chair in charge 

Possible Burst of the financial market in June 2026

under stagflation economy with creeping housing inflation apparent 

 

First of all, housing prices comprise 44% of US CPI. 

 

Inside the Consumer Price Index: June 2025

Jennifer NashJul 15, 2025

https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/IF12164.html

 

After the inauguration of President Trump, the number of immigrants have sharply dropped.

 

<monthly migrants encounters>

The Economist

Welcome to Zero Migration America

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/07/welcome-to-zero-migration-america

 

<The size of the foreign-born population-a sharp drop can be found starting 2025>

 

‘’Why the Decline in the Foreign-Born in the Monthly Household Survey in 2025 Is Very Likely Rea’’l

https://cis.org/Report/Why-Decline-ForeignBorn-Monthly-Household-Survey-2025-Very-Likely-Real

 

A large portion of construction workers were immigrants.

(I have written on this point several months ago.

See https://www.linkedin.com/posts/masuhiro-wako-4ba458301_analysis-of-fed-rate-policy-activity-7369433115733270528-f9xK?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAE0hjc4BKMJHlB8Qo1qyvSsQqMvH5p0ZgqI)

 

<more than 25% of construction workers are immigrants>

New Report Shows Construction Industry ‘Increasingly Reliant On Immigrant Workers, With Many Concentrated In Just A Few States’ - Including In New York, Where ‘More Than 37% Of Construction Workers Are Foreign Born’

https://www.wnylabortoday.com/news/2025/12/21/new-york-state-labor-news/new-report-shows-construction-industry-increasingly-reliant-on-immigrant-workers-with-many-concentrated-in-just-a-few-states-including-in-new-york-where-more-than-37-of-construction-workers-are-foreign-born/

 

<Affordable housing supply is expected to continue decreasing with Trump immigration policy>

‘’A Closer Look at Affordable Housing Supply Challenges’’

https://www.multihousingnews.com/a-closer-look-at-affordable-housing-supply-challenges/

 

With the depreciation of the USD, which is evident in the dollar index chart, prices of building materials will rise in addition to the higher labour cost.

 

<dollar index chart as of 17th November>

 

https://www.ig.com/jp/news-and-trade-ideas/usdjpy-forecast-and-key-chart-levels-to-watch-today-251024

 

 

The result to come is the resurgent inflationary pressure.

Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP and the sentiment is record low.

Under stagflation economy, Dovish Fed chair is scheduled to replace the incumbent Hawkish Jeromme Powell.

With the fluctuating volatility, the AI-driven financial market will burst in the end.

 

<Consumer Sentiment Index still sustained by a small portion of wealthy bracket>

‘’Consumer Sentiment Down Nearly 30% from a Year Ago’’

by Jennifer Nash, 12/19/25

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/12/19/consumer-sentiment-down-nearly-30-from-a-year-ago