March 25 2026
EIDE briefings-memo series
-''cognitive constraint'' created by media enhances the possibility of reaching the ceasefire between Iran and the US
Media reports have raised expectations of a ceasefire not only among market participants but also amongst people around the world.
As analysed previously, Trump is in a situation where he can no longer afford to wait, given his approval ratings.
As for Iran, even if it has the capacity to continue fighting for three months, if it misses the current opportunity for a ceasefire agreement, there is a risk that the US will no longer take it seriously three months from now.
The actions of both sides are being constrained by the global cognitive bias shaped by the media.
What is only concerning is the States have slaughtered the supreme leader of Iran used to work as an authorization institution.