20th Feb 2026
Edinburgh Institute of Diplomacy and Economics Briefings-memo series
ーCalculated WTI Prices control within a tolerable range to contain inflationary pressure by ‘’dovish’’ FRB rate policy
as long as WTI moves within the range $60-75, Trump is happy.
For this purpose, announcement effect or verbal intervention is appropriate.
Military intervention triggers retaliation and surge in WTI prices, thus causing disastrous inflationary pressure undesirable for Trump.
The Trump regime negotiates with its counterpart of Teheran.
According to traditional diplomacy, negotiation tends to be accompanied with economic pressure.
But this time, negotiation is pursued with military threat.
To maintain its prestige and face as a sovereign state, Iran would not surrender to the US demand easily.
Accordingly, WTI has risen again.
Herein, the commercialism of Trump can be seen.
High oil prices beyond BEP（Break Even Price) helps US petroleum companies to invest in oil-rich and China-dependent Venezuela.
Thus, China’s influence can be excluded further from Latin America.
<BEP of US shale oil companies>
<reference:https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/us-oil-producers-will-struggle-to-defend-margins-at-60-wti
Middle East turmoil also benefits Israel and Russia.
Netanyahu needs to keep his political life.
On the other hand, Putin wants the war with Ukraine to be prolonged by diversifying international criticism.
With a view to advancing his commercialism, Trump is thought to expand his sphere of influence in the Middle East and the Western Hemisphere.