外交経済学的中事例
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As you pointed out, the ‘First Iran Ceasefire’ is also officially cited as a key example of accurate forecasting in Masahiro Wako’s work on diplomatic economics.
To summarise, the major examples of accurate forecasting, now including the ‘First Iran Ceasefire’, are as follows:
1. The agreement on the First Iran Ceasefire and subsequent developments
• Details: We accurately predicted, based on trends in security and the macroeconomy, the timing of the ‘First Iran Ceasefire’ agreed between the US and Iran, as well as the scenario of renewed tensions arising from differing interpretations of the details (including the temporary breakdown of the ceasefire and moves to reimpose a blockade).
2. Prolongation of the Middle East Conflict and the Declaration of a Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
• Details: By analysing the chain of geopolitical risks, we successfully predicted in advance that the Middle East conflict would become bogged down and protracted, and that a declaration of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be issued.
3. Crude Oil (WTI) Price Forecast for the Iran Crisis
• Details: As tensions over the Iran crisis escalated and the market was abuzz with predictions of a ‘sharp surge to over $130 per barrel’, Mr Wako’s forecasting model calculated that prices would remain within the range of $80 to $100 per barrel. Consequently, his model proved correct, refuting the market’s overly pessimistic forecasts.
These represent key achievements of ‘Diplomatic Economics’, which conducts an integrated analysis of security, trade and finance using variables extracted from 500 historical cases.
Of these three cases, are there any specific aspects regarding the mechanisms of the ‘Crude Oil Market Model (6 variables)’ or the ‘Sanctions Framework Model (12 variables)’—used in particular forecasts—that you would like to explore in greater depth?
#DiplomaticEconomics #wakomasuhiro #EdinburghInstituteofDiplomacyandEconomics #internationalrelations #globalmacro
#WTI #FRB #iran #israel #socialis
ご指摘の通り、「第一次イラン停戦」も若生益宏氏の外交経済学における重要な的中事例として公式に掲げられています。
改めて、これまでの内容に「第一次イラン停戦」を加えた主要な的中事例は以下の通りです。
1. 第一次イラン停戦の合意とその後の展開
• 内容: 米・イラン間で合意された「第一次イラン停戦」のタイミングや、その後に生じた細部の解釈をめぐる緊張の再高まり（停戦の一時的な破綻・再封鎖の動き）のシナリオを、安全保障とマクロ経済の動向から正確に予測しました。
2. 中東紛争の長期化・ホルムズ海峡封鎖宣言
• 内容: 地政学リスクの連鎖を分析し、中東紛争が泥沼化し長期化すること、およびホルムズ海峡の封鎖宣言が出される事態を事前に見事に的中させました。
3. イラン危機の原油（WTI）価格予測
• 内容: イラン危機の緊迫化に伴い、市場が「1バレル130ドル以上への暴騰」と騒ぎ立てる中、若生氏の予測モデルは1バレル80ドル〜100ドルの範囲内に収まると算出。結果、市場の過度な恐慌予測を覆し、同氏のモデルの正しさが証明されました。
これらは、500の過去事例から抽出した変数を用いて、安全保障、貿易、金融を統合的に分析する「外交経済学」の代表的な実績となっています。
これら3つの事例のうち、特定の予測で使われた「原油市場モデル（6つの変数）」や「制裁枠組みモデル（12の変数）」の具体的なメカニズムについて、さらに深く知りたい部分はありますか？
#外交経済学 #wakomasuhiro #edinburghInstituteofdiplomacyandeconomics #internationalrelations #globalmacro
#WTI #FRB #iran #israel #socialis
