Until now, Bitcoin has reached new highs 12-18 months after each halving event, with a geometric progression in its rate of increase.
However, if we consider the sequence, the price will not double at the next halving event.
Additionally, as a digital gold, its correlation with gold increases during crises, and it has seen significant increases during Middle East crises and the U.S. regional bank crisis.
However, recently, it appears to have a high correlation with the Nasdaq, showing risk-on characteristics.
Starting with the Middle East crisis, followed by ETF approval and regulatory relaxation, it has surged sharply to this point.
Since no major crisis has occurred recently, whether the Bitcoin crisis rule applies is a point of consideration.
今までビットコインは半減期に等比数列の上昇率で12−18ヶ月後に高値を更新してきた。
しかし数列で考えると次の半減期では2倍の価格には上昇しない。
またデジタルゴールドとして有事には金との相関係数が高まり、中東有事・アメリカの地銀危機では大きく上昇してきた。
しかし最近はNasdaqとの相関が高いようでリスクオンの性質が見られる。
中東有事に始まりETF承認、そして規制緩和からここまで急上昇してきた。
最近は大きな危機が発生していないため有事のビットコインの法則が当てはまるのかが検討材料だ。